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考研名師英語(yǔ)解析 油價(jià)與經(jīng)濟(jì)
Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (inconstant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is
[A]global inflation. [B]reduction in supply.
[C]fast growth in economy. [D]Iraq's suspension of exports.
32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if
[A]price of crude rises. [B]commodity prices rise.
[C]consumption rises. [D]oil taxes rise.
33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
[A]heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive.
[B]income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices.
[C]manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed.
[D]oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP.
34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that
[A]oil-price shocks are less shocking now.
[B]inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks.
[C]energy conservation can keep down the oil prices.
[D]the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry.
35. From the text we can see that the writer seems
[A]optimistic. [B]sensitive. [C]gloomy. [D]scared.
名師解析
31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 最近的油價(jià)上漲的主要原因是
[A]global inflation. 全球通貨膨脹。
[B]reduction in supply.供應(yīng)量減少。
[C]fast growth in economy. 快速的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。
[D]Iraq's suspension of exports. 伊拉克暫時(shí)停止石油出口。
【答案】 B
【考點(diǎn)】 事實(shí)細(xì)節(jié)題。
【分析】 根據(jù)題干可以定位到第一段的第二句話“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December.”，說(shuō)明由于石油輸出國(guó)決定降低供給量，使得油價(jià)上升。所以本題的答案是[B]。[D]不是該現(xiàn)象的主要原因，因?yàn)椤癘PEC”的相關(guān)決定才是能夠影響石油價(jià)格的走勢(shì)的主要原因。
32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if
從文中可以推斷出，如果________，汽油的零售價(jià)格將會(huì)劇烈上升。
[A]price of crude rises. 原油價(jià)格上升。
[B]commodity prices rise. 日用品價(jià)格上升。
[C]consumption rises. 消費(fèi)上升。
[D]oil taxes rise. 油稅上升。
【答案】 D
【考點(diǎn)】 推斷題。
【分析】 根據(jù)題干可以定位到第三段的第三句話“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past..”意思是說(shuō)“在歐洲，稅占汽油的零售價(jià)的五分之四，因此相比以往，原油的價(jià)格變化對(duì)汽油的影響不會(huì)很明顯”。也就是說(shuō)稅的增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致汽油價(jià)格的猛漲，而原油價(jià)格的變化帶來(lái)的影響不會(huì)很大。本題一個(gè)理解的難度是“muted effect”，另外一個(gè)是“pump price”。“mute”表示“啞巴的，無(wú)聲的，沉默的”，和“effect”連用，表示“影響不明顯”；而“pump price”是一個(gè)很形象的說(shuō)法，“pump”指的是“泵”，這里很形象用“pump”指代“汽油”。根據(jù)上述分析，可以得出答案是[D]。
33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》的評(píng)估表明在富國(guó)
[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive.
重工業(yè)變得更加能源密集型。
[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices.
收入損失主要由于波動(dòng)的原油價(jià)格造成。
[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed.
制造業(yè)面臨嚴(yán)重影響。
[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP.
油價(jià)變化對(duì)國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值沒有大的影響。
【答案】 D
【考點(diǎn)】 推斷題。
【分析】 根據(jù)本題的關(guān)鍵詞“《經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》的估計(jì)”可以定位到“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP.”。也就是說(shuō)，油價(jià)的上漲對(duì)GDP 的影響很小，只有“0.25%—0.5%”。因此我們可以得出答案[D]。
34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that 從文中我們可以得出的結(jié)論是
[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now. 油價(jià)沖擊已經(jīng)不再那么駭人聽聞。
[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks. 通貨膨脹看起來(lái)和油價(jià)沖擊無(wú)關(guān)。
[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices. 能源儲(chǔ)備能夠使油價(jià)下降。
[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry.
原油價(jià)格的上升導(dǎo)致重工業(yè)的萎縮。
【答案】 A
【考點(diǎn)】 文章主旨題。
【分析】 本題的幾個(gè)選項(xiàng)需要通篇理解。文章第三段指出“油價(jià)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響不會(huì)那么嚴(yán)重”，作者指出其原因是“原油價(jià)格占汽油價(jià)格的比例不高，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)石油的依賴減弱，此次漲價(jià)的背景不一樣了”。文章最后一段說(shuō)“這次油價(jià)上漲與20世紀(jì)70年代的上漲不同，對(duì)各國(guó)的影響也基本沒有反映出來(lái)，連物價(jià)基本都沒有變動(dòng)”，也就是說(shuō)，油價(jià)沖擊已經(jīng)不是那么可怕。所以答案是[A]。
35. From the text we can see that the writer seems 從本文中我們可以看出作者看上去是
[A] optimistic. 樂觀的。 [B] sensitive.敏感的。
[C] gloomy. 沮喪的。 [D] scared.恐懼的。
【答案】 A
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